How Rarity Works in CS2
Every skin in Counter-Strike 2 is assigned a rarity tier that indicates how rare it is. Rarity directly affects how often a skin drops from cases, which in turn affects its market price. Higher rarity means lower drop rates and — generally — higher prices.
Rarity is shown as a colored bar on each skin, both in-game and here on SkinsAtlas.
The Seven Rarity Tiers
Consumer Grade (White)
The most common rarity. Consumer Grade skins drop frequently and are the base tier in collections.
- Color: White / Light Gray
- Drop chance from collections: Very high
- Not found in weapon cases — only from random drops and collections
- Typical price: A few cents
These skins are functional but basic. Most players sell or trade them up using Trade Up Contracts.
Industrial Grade (Light Blue)
The second-lowest rarity tier. Slightly less common than Consumer Grade.
- Color: Light Blue
- Drop chance from collections: High
- Not found in weapon cases — only from drops and collections
- Typical price: Under $0.50
Like Consumer Grade, these are mostly used as Trade Up Contract material.
Mil-Spec (Blue)
Mil-Spec is the most common rarity found in weapon cases. When you open a case, you'll get a Mil-Spec skin the majority of the time.
- Color: Blue
- Drop chance from cases: ~80%
- Also found in: Collections, random drops
- Typical price: $0.10 – $5
Mil-Spec is where skins start to have recognizable designs. Many popular budget skins fall in this tier.
Restricted (Purple)
Restricted skins are noticeably rarer than Mil-Spec. They feature more elaborate designs and higher production quality.
- Color: Purple
- Drop chance from cases: ~16%
- Typical price: $1 – $30
This tier includes many fan-favorite skins. The designs are more distinctive, and prices start to become meaningful.
Classified (Pink)
Classified is the second-highest standard rarity. These skins are rare, well-designed, and often highly sought after.
- Color: Pink / Magenta
- Drop chance from cases: ~3.2%
- Typical price: $5 – $100+
Classified skins are often the "showcase" skins of a case. They tend to have detailed, unique artwork and strong community demand.
Covert (Red)
Covert is the highest standard rarity in weapon cases. These are the flagship skins — the ones featured in case promotional art and sought by collectors.
- Color: Red
- Drop chance from cases: ~0.64%
- Typical price: $20 – $500+
Getting a Covert skin from a case is roughly a 1-in-156 chance. These skins represent the best designs Valve produces for each case.
Contraband (Orange)
Contraband is a special rarity that currently applies to only one skin: the M4A4 | Howl.
- Color: Orange / Gold
- How it happened: The Howl was originally released as a Covert skin. After Valve discovered the artwork was stolen from another artist, they removed it from the case and reclassified it as Contraband. No more can ever be created.
- Price: Thousands of dollars depending on condition
Contraband is not a rarity you can "get" from cases. It exists purely because of a unique historical event in the game's history.
Rare Special Items (Knives, Gloves, and More)
When opening weapon cases, there's also a small chance of receiving a Rare Special Item. These are knives, gloves, or other rare cosmetics that exist outside the normal rarity tiers.
- Color: Gold / Yellow
- Drop chance from cases: ~0.26% (roughly 1 in 385)
- These are the big-ticket items — a knife or glove unbox is what most case openers are hoping for
- Prices range from $50 to $10,000+ depending on the specific item, pattern, and condition
Rare Special Items don't follow the standard rarity tier system. They have their own pool within each case, usually including multiple knife or glove types with various finishes.
Rarity and Trade Up Contracts
Trade Up Contracts let you exchange 10 skins of the same rarity for 1 skin of the next rarity tier up. The resulting skin is randomly selected from eligible collections.
The trade-up path:
- 10 Consumer Grade → 1 Industrial Grade
- 10 Industrial Grade → 1 Mil-Spec
- 10 Mil-Spec → 1 Restricted
- 10 Restricted → 1 Classified
- 10 Classified → 1 Covert
You cannot trade up to Contraband or to Rare Special Items (knives/gloves). Covert is the highest tier reachable through Trade Up Contracts.
How Rarity Affects Pricing
Rarity sets the baseline for pricing, but it's not the only factor. Within each rarity tier, prices vary based on:
- Skin design and popularity — A well-liked Mil-Spec skin can cost more than an unpopular Restricted one
- Wear condition — Factory New vs Battle-Scarred
- StatTrak availability — StatTrak variants cost more
- Case availability — Skins from discontinued or rare cases cost more
- Supply — Older cases have been opened millions of times, increasing supply of their skins
As a rough guide, each rarity step up multiplies the average price by 3–5x. But individual skins can deviate significantly from this pattern based on demand.
Identifying Rarity
Every skin on SkinsAtlas displays its rarity with the corresponding color. You can:
- Filter by rarity on weapon pages to browse skins of a specific tier
- See the rarity badge on each skin card throughout the site
- Check the colored bar at the top of each skin card — it matches the rarity color
Understanding rarity is fundamental to understanding the CS2 skin economy. It's the first thing to learn before getting into trading or investing in skins.